Daniel Jones gave a lot of fans the ability to say they could do something a professional athlete can do on Thursday night versus the Eagles
Speaking of the future, let's get a look at Week 7…
To be honest, there aren't a ton of games that I love on this slate. Seems like oddsmakers have this week dialed in and a lot of these match ups just seem a little off. However, the games that do call out to me all have one thing in common.
Road Favorites for the Win
Packers -3.5 over Texans
The Packers are coming off a brutal road loss, in which their offense got full on exposed by Todd Bowles and the Bucs. What's the best medicine for an offense still nursing their pride and trying to rebound? Playing against a defense allowing 5.4 yards per carry and having Aaron Jones on your team is a good start. The line on this should be higher, but the Texans playing a home drops the spread by a couple points. I expect and hope everyone will take advantage here. Heck, double up and bet Aaron Jones overs on yards, TDs, and anything else you can find!
Aaron Rodgers will look to bounce back from a tough loss in Tampa Bay.(Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images)
Browns -3 over Bengals
The Browns are coming off a brutal road loss, in which their offense got full on exposed by Keith Butler and the Steelers. What's the best medicine for an offense still nursing their pride and trying to rebound? Playing a defense allowing 5.1 yards per carry and having Kareem Hunt on your team is a good start. Whoa. So, that's what Deja vu feels like. The only way this could be better for the Dawg Pound was if Nick Chubb was healthy. On the flip side, the Cleveland D has been porous, at times, but against the rookie Joe Burrow and a struggling Cincy offense, whom they've already handled once this year with ease, they'll have a chance to get right.
Seahawks -3 over Cardinals
Russell Wilson has cemented himself as the odds-on favorite for MVP on the strength of his glorious arm and ability to extend plays behind his middling offensive line. The Cardinals and Kyler Murray, the briefest of MVP candidates, have shown flashes, but thrown some duds in for equal measure. However, the biggest concern is their strength of opponent. In the past four weeks, they've lost to the Lions and Panthers, while beating up on the Darnold-less Jets and Dak-less Cowboys. The Seahawks are, by far, the best opponent this young and inconsistent team has faced and it's time for the real contender to do away with the pretender.
D'Andre Swift to Score a TD (+135)
The Georgia stud and rookie running back is coming off of his best game as a professional against the Jacksonville Jaguars. This feels like the moment he takes the leap towards being a consistent fantasy play and genuine offensive threat. He put up 116 yards on 14 carries for a gaudy 8.2 average with two touchdowns to boot. He's about to face another weak bottom half of the league rushing D, one who's let up the second most receptions to backs. Swift got four of those last week, so he's just as likely to punch one in via the air as the ground. For a little (lot of) extra value, you can always bet him to score the first TD at +1100.
Jimmy Garoppolo receiving some hands on coaching from Bill Belichick, his former mentor and current opponent. Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
San Francisco vs New England over 43.5
The 49ers and Patriots are both having themselves some odd seasons. Cam Newton looked like his former self in the early going, but a COVID diagnosis derailed any momentum he or the team had before getting the Chiefs, an early bye, and the Broncos. Belichick isn't taking a three game losing streak without a fight, and will be working overtime to return his offense to their early season success. Not to mention, the mastermind is going up against his former backup, who he's definitely sick of having to talk about trading. Meanwhile, the 49ers have been ravaged by injuries, having the most guys on IR this season. This rash of bad luck included their starting QB, RB, WR, TE, CB, DE, and LB all missing time. It culminated in an ugly loss to the Dolphins, which seemed to be the wake up call the team needed to bounce back to beat the Rams. I could easily see this game scoring up into the high 20's with a pair of highly motivated offenses going against defenses, which haven't reached the heights of last season's former glory.
Players to Target:
Josh Allen (QB) - $8800
Allen gets the full on, tank-mode Jets in the Meadowlands on Sunday. One of the worst defenses in the league matched up against one of the top offensive QBs in 2020 is a match up to target.
Justin Herbert (QB) - $7500
Herbert produced a great line two weeks ago against the Saints on Monday Night Football. He gets the Jaguars this week and should continue to produce at a high level.
Best passer rating through week 6: Russell Wilson - 129.8 Derek Carr - 115.9 Ryan Tannehill - 113.5 Patrick Mahome… https://t.co/GEQSDAOaFD— NFL Stats (@NFL Stats) 1603322892.0
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB) - $7000
SNOW GAME ALERT! Seven to ten inches forecasted for the game in Denver this week. We saw what Andy Reid did with CEH last week in a rainy Buffalo game, both Edwards-Helaire and Bell should get plenty of carries this week.
Kareem Hunt (RB) - $7100
The Bengals and Browns face off this week. With Chubb still sidelined by a sprained MCL, Hunt should have plenty opportunities to score against a porous Bengals defense.
Stefon Diggs (WR) - $7500
Diggs leads the AFC in targets through 6 weeks. He went over 100 yards in the first meeting with the Jets in Week 1. He's an easy plug and play this week.
Diontae Johnson (WR) - $5800
Johnson looks to be on track to return from injury this week. He should have plenty of opportunities in what looks to be a high scoring game against Tennessee.
Noah Fant (TE) - $6000
Snow means the short passing game will be a priority if/when it happens. Fant is coming back from his ankle injury but has gotten full practices in this week and should be good to go.
TJ Hockenson (TE) - $5900
Hockenson gets an Atlanta defense that is 31st against TEs. No brainer with this match up.
Buffalo Bills (DEF) - $5000
If you've followed my articles all year, you know I never like to pay up for Defenses. This may be the lone exception where I recommend the top defense from a cost standpoint. The Jets are just that bad.
If you don't start the Bills this week you deserve to lose by 300. https://t.co/LF5IHrAgq8— NBCSports Washington (@NBCSports Washington) 1603284305.0
Kansas CIty Chiefs (DEF) - $4600
There is a pattern here is you haven't noticed by now. Chiefs should be able to take advantage of Drew Lock in what looks to be a low scoring affair due to weather.
Players to Avoid:
Andy Dalton (QB) - $7200
Dalton did not look comfortable at all against Arizona on Monday. He is an obvious downgrade from Prescott, and that pulls the rest of Dallas' offense down with him.
Patrick Mahomes II (QB) - $9000
Low scoring affair and bad weather games are not kind to QBs. This is probably the lone week to stay away from Mahomes.
Josh Jacobs (RB) - $7800
Jacobs has cooled off after a hot start to the year. He gets Tampa Bay this week, and that defense has been stellar at taking away opposing running games.
Justin Jackson (RB) - $6100
Jackson is a sneaky underdog play this week, but has been limited in practice all week with a knee ailment, keep an eye out if you have him in lineups.
Michael Gallup (WR) - $5600
Gallup has not produced 5 out of 6 weeks this year, and without Dak, he's basically un-startable right now.
JuJu Smith-Schuster (WR) -$6500
I'm not sure what JuJu did to get into Ben's dog house, but Chase Claypool, Diontae Johnson and James Washington seem to have taken over as the top options in Pittsburgh. He has some appeal this week because of the match up with TEN, but he's tough to trust.
Austin Hooper (TE) - $5400
Hooper had one of his best statistical outings of the year in Week 6. But he's an afterthought in this offense. With Mayfield battling rib injuries, he's hard to trust.
Bud Dupree, Robert Spillane, and Vince Williams welcoming TE Austin Hooper to the AFC North. "Buckle your chinstrap… https://t.co/8da532gEI0— Alex Kozora (@Alex Kozora) 1603131029.0
Darren Waller (TE) - $6800
Waller gets Tampa, whose defense has been excellent against tight ends. There are better options out there.
Cleveland Browns (DEF) - $4700
The Bengals offense has shown it is dangerous, and the Browns defense isn't scaring anyone right now.
Arizona Cardinals (DEF) - $3800
The Cardinals and Seahawks square off on Sunday night, and this looks like it is going to be high scoring. I don't think anyone thinks the Cardinals have the ability to stop Russ in the kitchen.
FindBet Free Play for Week 7:
Here's a team you can put right into any of your contests, just remember to buy us a beer when you win big!
Nick Chubb ran wild over the Bengals defense on Thursday night
Let's start by checking on the previous week's picks.
The Theory of Continuity (4-3)
Four teams took care of business last week, as expected. Three did not.
Philip Rivers clearly brought his knack for wonky finishes east with him to Indy. Plus, the wound may never heal after all the head scratching I did about the use of Nyheim Hines over Jonathan Taylor.
The Eagles. I have no words. Except this:
My friend, noted Eagles fan, having his yearly break down in Week One.Tyler Austin
How did he know Philly would blow it at noon? Where did my friend find a bar that would serve him during COVID? At 8AM? Is he OK? The answer to all these? I don't know.
Lastly, the Titans. This one is pretty high on the bad-beat-o-meter. If Stephen Gostkowski hit just one of the four kicks (3 FGs, 1 PAT) he attempted. We'd all be residents of Cover City. Instead, I think they should revoke a syllable from his last name for every whiff. You're on notice Stephen __________.
Homedawgs (0-2-1)
The Panthers played this one close and nearly secured the upset, but their run D could've given up 100 yards and a TD to a Roomba (the rumored design inspiration for their stadium).
The Falcons were never in it and should consider a name change to the Garbage Men considering how much work they did during some meaningless football.
Julio Jones dominating another game that ultimately ends in defeat.AP Photo/Brynn Anderson
The Bengals… PUSHED and I will take it. The Chargers will play a lot of close games this season except maybe the upcoming week, but more on than later.
Money line Upset (0-1)
Well, turns out a Heisman/MVP-winning QB that's 12 years younger than your last signal caller might just be an upgrade. Belichick, you did it again!
Week 2
For the most part, betting on continuity worked. Where can we apply those lessons to make us some scratch?
Ravens -7 over Texans
Steelers -7.5 over Broncos
Chiefs -8.5 over Chargers
Saints -4.5 over Raiders
The Ravens played this game last season. Final score: BAL 41 HOU 7. I'm not sure what the line would have to be for me NOT to take them. If I'm being honest with myself, I think 16.5 but you could talk me up to the low 20s. The offense is demoralizing, terrorizing, and, to borrow a phrase reserved for defense, smothering. The Texans look anemic, at best, and due to some cruel scheduling have booked themselves an 0-2 start.
The Steelers could somehow be better on defense. They held Saquon Barkley to six yards, picked Daniel Jones twice, and provided a needed goal line stand early. Big Ben got going, after a year off, and his rapport with JuJu Smith-Schuster looked as lively as ever. Denver showed flashes last week, but don't think their sophomore QB will fare much better against this stout D.
Not to mention, Vic Fangio hasn't quite proven his coaching mettle after letting time run down in the 4th, which set up the Titans' game-winning FG with a handful of seconds left. All the while, the two timeouts in his pocket cried out, never to be heard from, as they were sent straight to Clock Management Hell.
The Chiefs played this game last year at high altitude in Mexico City without Tyreek Hill, Damien Williams, who went out of the game early, and it was the second start for Pat Mahomes after dislocating his kneecap. They won 24-17, and if not for a late Philip Rivers' TD toss and 2 point conversion, it'd have looked even worse. I don't know if KC will cover every game this year, but I'm willing to pay to find out, especially against a Chargers team, who, even with an A- defense, only ever pulls out a C+ game.
Ben Roethlisberger scrambling for a score against the Denver Broncos in a previous matchup.David Zalubowski/AP
The Saints didn't set the world on fire a week ago when they beat the Bucs. Michael Thomas, the world's number one target, had only three catches, and Drew Brees, the NFL's walking record book, threw for a measly 160 yards, yet they won by 11 and didn't make it look hard. The offense will continue to click against a D that allowed 30 to Drew's backup with significantly less impressive weapons. The Raiders run heavy attack should be easily outpaced by a Saints team with sights set on the Super Bowl.
Drew Brees celebrates a successful throw in a victory over the divisional rival Tampa Bay Buccaneers.Chris Graythen/Getty Images
Over/Under/Up/Down/All Around
Bills and Dolphins under 41
Josh Allen is one of the most exciting players in football, not a compliment. You never know if he's going to fumble twice or rumble for a score. The Miami offense didn't quite have the Fitzmagic of old in Week One when they managed only 11 points. Both teams are facing better defenses than their previous opponent, so as boring and torturous as it can be to root for, I have to hit the under.
The Dawg in the Fight
Carolina +8.5 over the Buccaneers
The Panthers could have something special on offense this year and that's not just Sir Purr talking. Between Rhule and Joe Brady, the steady hand of Bridgewater, and their array of weapons, it's easy to say the raw talent is there. The D will be a problem going forward, but against Tompa Bay, a team who hasn't gelled offensively, this one should be a lot closer than 8.5 points. The unearned respect by odds makers should be something to monitor because it's one of a few ways to keep winning before they adjust.
